August 12, 2008

MIDWEST FLOODING DISASTER LESSON:
THE MEANING OF FLOOD ZONES

The amazing thing about the destructive flooding in Iowa in June was not the extent of if,
but the fact that most of the flooding occurred in areas not considered special flood hazard
areas. 

All areas of the country are zoned by FEMA to indicate the severity of the flooding
exposure.  Zones A and V are what are called the “special flood hazard” areas.  These are
areas where lenders mandate that the coverage be carried.  These are “100- year flood”
areas,” meaning the chance of flooding in any given year is one out of 100 (1%).  Zone B is
the area of the 500- year flood.  Zone C is the area outside of the 500-year flood – the lowest exposure.

No exposure to worry about outside of Zones A and V?  Not true at all, though that is
the common wisdom.  In Iowa in June most of the flooding occurred in Zone C.  The
recurring theme in discussions of the event is that the loss was not predictable. 
Risk managers would never use such a phrase, as we are always concerned about the
unexpected.

Said Craig Lang, president of the Iowa Farm Bureau, “This was not expected.”  Donna
Pearcy of the University of Iowa, expressing the same thought said  “ We exceeded the 500
year flood level, and that is important in understanding the magnitude of this.”  Mark
Bernacki of Beazley Group, a Lloyd’s of London syndicate that writes flood insurance
expressed it this way:

“I think businesses in the Midwest have thought much more about flood coverage since 1993 [the last flood disaster in the area] and those who are in the 100-year areas are probably prepared, but those in the 500-year area probably didn’t expect this.”

The risk management reality is that flood coverage should be carried in most situations
regardless of zone.  FEMA pays over 25% of their flood claims in areas outside of the
“special flood hazard” areas.  As with most exposures, the probability (or remoteness) of
the event is less important than the severity of the event if in fact it does come to pass.  The
importance of the flood zones is geared to pricing of the insurance more than it is the
factor in deciding whether to carry the coverage.  The reasonableness of the insurance
premium in Zone C (and to some extent even in Zone B) should ease the burden of paying
the premium.

As with due diligence in all areas of endeavor, a professional approach to risk management
serves us much better than the wisdom of crowds.

 For more information, contact Debora Wu, at
DWU@LicataKelleher.com


May 8, 2008

THE STATE OF COMPUTER SECURITY
Internal Threat Rises to the Top

Two recently released computer and information security surveys provide data on the subject:

  1. The 2007 Global State of Information Security survey by CIO and CSO magazines in conjunction with PricewaterhouseCoopers
  2. The 2007 CSI Computer Crime and Security Survey by the Computer Security Institute, with input from the FBI

Some key points from the surveys:

Losses are Greater in Size
The average size of the loss suffered due to a breach is up, after declining for several years.  However, average size remains low relative to very high levels in 2001 and 2002 before companies had widely adopted security measures.

More Attacks are Targeted Attacks
This may account for the new increase in loss size as perpetrators go after specific targets rather than random hacking. 

The Insider Threat Continues to Rage
It has been common wisdom for several years that insiders (employees and former employees) constitute the greatest threat. This has been confirmed in surveys over the years, and it striking in its clarity in these two 2007 surveys.  Insiders are a far greater risk than hackers from outside, due to their access to systems and information, and in the case of disgruntled ex-employees , due to motive.

In fact it is now becoming clear that the $7 billion trading loss suffered by French company Societe Generale in 2007 was enabled by a security breach, in that the employee had access to areas of the network he should not have had.

More Companies are Getting Serious About Security
57% of respondents to the CIO survey reported having an overall security strategy, as opposed to only 37% in 2004.

We will address the state of the insurance market for computer and data security in a follow-up bulletin.

                                                                       
For more information, or to attend, contact Debora Wu, at DWu@LicataKelleher.com


PAST NEWS OF NOTE

February 1, 2008

TERRORISM PROGRAM RENEWED
Time to again consider the risk and insurance implications

A crisis has just been averted with the January 08 renewal of the federal terrorism law.  The terrorism law, [TRIA (the Terrorism Risk and Insurance Act) in its original form], has just been renewed for seven years, to expire now at the end of 2014.  The law requires insurers to include an offer of terrorism coverage with any policy they issue (with some exceptions).  The law does not however control what they can charge for premium.  One change effective with this extension is the inclusion of domestic terrorism in the program.

This is an opportune time to reconsider the coverage. Undue complacency may have taken hold in the years since the World Trade Center attack.   Consider that another event (or two) will result in a chaotic environment in which the coverage will be impossible to obtain.  Think strategically rather than impulsively on this subject.

    "Let us not look back in anger or forward in fear, but around in awareness."   --- James Thurber

Insurance is not the cure for every risk, and risk management is more than just insurance.  However terrorism has the characteristics for which insurance is ideally suited: high severity and low frequency.  This combination serves the make the coverage necessary, and should serve to make the premium reasonable.  In some cases, though, unreasonable premiums are being and have been quoted.  This problem can be managed.

DETERMINING THE RISK

We need to have a feel for the risk in order to evaluate the premium.  The insurance industry trade organization Insurance Services Office (ISO) has established guidelines for its members that evaluate exposure geographically and by target class:

Geographic Risk Categories:

Tier 1 (High Hazard)
New York City
San Francisco County, CA
Washington D.C
Cook County, Ill (Chicago Area)

Tier 2 (Moderate Hazard)
Boston, MA
Seattle, Washington
Los Angeles, CA
Houston, TX
Philadelphia, PA

Tier 3 (Low Hazard)
Remainder of the U.S.

"Primary Target Types" are listed as follows:

" Airport, Amusement Center, Bus Terminal, Capitol Building, Church, Clinic, Electric Power Facility, Event Stadium or Arena, Federal Building, Forbes 500 Corporate Headquarters, Foreign Embassy, Higher Education Institution, Hospital, Lower Education Institution, Marine Terminal, Medical Center, Natural Gas Facility, Oilfield, Post Office, Prominent Building, Railway Bridge, Religious Institution Excluding Church, Shopping Center or Major Retail Center, Train Station." 

Additionally, there are certain specific "trophy targets" which are famous buildings or facilities that have some special high profile.  Proximity to any of these creates exposure as well, of course.

THE NEED TO REVIEW PRICING

The law allows the market to establish pricing, but not without some oversight.  State insurance departments do have the right to determine whether rates are "excessive" and therefore against public policy, and to enforce a lowering of those rates.  There has been little or no enforcement action to date and many insurers may have abused the situation; with the current market softening, this problem has in many cases disappeared

What's a reasonable premium?  The insurers' trade group originally (after 9/11) offered the following guidelines to its members (since 9/11 has faded into the past, and the market is softening overall, rates should be lower now):

PROPERTY

Rates are per $100 of property value insured, and are only "loss costs."  Insurers will add their overhead and profit factors and miscellaneous charges:

Tier     Building     Contents

1        .108            .078

2        .018            .012

3        .001            .001

These rates must be adjusted for characteristics of individual risks.

According to the above, the loss cost (subject to the adjustments mentioned) for $10 million of building coverage in Boston would be $1800.  The full premium could be around $2800.  Outside of Boston, the loss cost would be only $100!  This is a basis on which to have a rational discussion with an underwriter.

LIABILITY

Liability terrorism premiums are expressed as a percentage of the basic general liability premium that a company would pay without the terrorism coverage.  The exposure is high for companies in the security business, for owners of high exposure buildings who are responsible for the security function, and for other special situations.  For others, the premium should be affordable.  For example a Boston company in an "average exposure class" should pay a premium equal to 3 1/2 % of its general liability premium.  In Massachusetts outside of Boston, the percentage would be only 8 tenths of one percent.

The costs for "above average exposure classes" will be considerably higher.  Insurers are not all following the suggestions of ISO, as previously stated.  However, ultimately insurers with an excessive price and a "take it or leave it" attitude may come to regret that posture.

In risk management a short attention span is hazardous.  We look to protect against the severe events.  Because they happen only infrequently, this doesn't give us license to ignore them.  Such large events seem almost predestined when looking at them in hindsight.

For more information, or to attend, contact Debora Wu, at DWu@LicataKelleher.com

 

November 27, 2007

GLOBAL WARMING PANEL IN
BOSTON RAISES KEY ISSUES

Risk and insurance implications highlighted

At a panel discussion November 16 at the World Trade Center in Boston, experts in the field discussed climate change, its impact on specific weather events, implications for personal and business risk, and its effect on property and D&O insurance coverage and markets. The program was sponsored by the Boston Chapter of the CPCU Society.

Panelists were:

 

Sergio Prete, VP and Manager, Catastrophe Exposures, FM Global

  Michael Goetz, Risk Analysis Branch Chief, Region 1, FEMA
  Karen Clark, Founder of AIR Worldwide and Principal, Karen Clark & Co
  Andrew Logan, Director Oil and Insurance Programs, Ceres

The moderator was Robert Mansfield, Sr. VP, HUB International Brewer & Lord.

Some of the major points arising out of the session were:

  1. Flood maps in use by FEMA currently are being revised, but until the program is completed (several years from now) the zones delineated cannot be relied on for accuracy. It makes sense, then, to be very conservative in considering flood exposure.

  2. Insurers are focusing on windstorm exposure and taking measures to reduce their risk such as pulling out of coastal areas. However, the global warming effect is much broader than just a windstorm phenomenon, encompassing draught, flooding, wildfires, etc. In the words of one presenter “You can exclude yourself out of business.”

  3. The paucity of hurricanes in the last two seasons cannot be taken as a rebuttal to the global warming theory. The loss amount in those seasons is more a function of where the hurricanes hit rather than their frequency or severity. Also, the trend, like almost all trends, is not a straight line, but rather zig zags while still heading in an upward direction long term.

  4. Weather related losses can be prevented. Many pictorial examples were presented indicating the very real effect of engineering as a tool to reduce or eliminate loss.
Principals of Licata Kelleher, as officers and board members of the CPCU Society, were instrumental in organizing this program.


For more information, or to attend, contact Debora Wu, at DWu@LicataKelleher.com

PAST NEWS OF NOTE

October 19, 2007

GLOBAL WARMING SYMPOSIUM NOVEMBER 16, 2007 IN BOSTON

Panel to discuss risk and insurance implications


At a panel discussion scheduled for November 16 at the World Trade Center in Boston, experts in the field will discuss climate change, its impact on specific weather events, implications for personal and business risk, and its effect on property and D&O insurance coverage and markets. The program is sponsored by the Boston Chapter of the CPCU Society.
Scheduled panelists are:

  Sergio Prete, VP and Manager, Catastrophe Exposures, FM Global
  Michael Goetz, Risk Analysis Branch Chief, Region 1, FEMA
  Karen Clark, Founder of AIR Worldwide and Principal, Karen Clark & Co
  Andrew Logan, Director Oil and Insurance Programs, Ceres 

The moderator will be Robert Mansfield, Sr. VP, HUB International Brewer & Lord.
A question and answer period will follow the presentations.

  Date: Friday, November 16, 2007
  Time: 8:15 to 11:30 AM - Breakfast and Presentation
  Place: The World Trade Center
Seaport Avenue
Boston, MA

The cost is $60.00 including continental breakfast and lunch. Clients of Licata Kelleher will attend at no cost as our guests.
Principals of Licata Kelleher, as officers and board members of the CPCU Society, were instrumental in organizing this program.

For more information, contact Debora Wu, at DWU@LicataKelleher.com


August 29, 2007

HURRICANE DEAN AN OMEN?

Hurricane Season Is Far From Over

Hurricane Dean notwithstanding, windstorm activity has been light again this year … so far. Unfortunately, however, hurricane season runs through the end of November. We even have over a month to go to get through the peak of the season which ends on September 30.

Forecasters continue to predict greater than average hurricane activity not only for this year, but for the longer term. In fact one respected group, the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, has published the following prediction for 2007 in the “Atlantic Basin”:

  Named Storms: 17
  Hurricanes: 9
  Hurricane Days: 40
  Intense Hurricanes: 5
  Intense Hurricane Days: 11

They put forth the following probabilities of at least one major hurricane (category 3,4 or 5) making landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

  US Coastline: 74% (average for last century is 52%)
  US East Coast 50% (average is 31%)
  Gulf Coast 49% (average is 30%)

Even other areas of the country are not immune from this kind of storm activity, with New England now in the sights of some forecasters. In fact New England does have a history: there have been six category 3 hurricanes in Massachusetts alone in the last century, with the last one in 1969. Hurricane patterns are cyclical, and the thought is that the pendulum has swung.
Risk management includes the following:

  1.

New building construction should certainly conform to local building codes, but in addition owners should look to the codes in other states like Florida and Louisiana which are in some ways far ahead with respect to wind-resistant construction

  2.

Building insurance values should be at least 100% of replacement cost, with consideration of a limit even higher to cover debris removal, spikes in construction costs following events, and changes in building codes

  3.

Careful attention should be paid to flood insurance, even in areas outside of FEMA’s“Special Flood Hazard Areas.” Reasons for this include:

    • FEMA pays 25% of their claims in zones other than special hazard areas

    • FEMA is in the process of remapping the entire country, but has not released the new zoning yet; thus many published flood zones are obsolete

    • Hurricanes are often slow moving and dump tremendous loads of precipitation, so that normally dry land not near any body of water is vulnerable; this month’s extraordinary Midwest flooding is an illustration of this phenomenon

  4. There are steps to take when a storm is imminent in your area; contact us for tips on this subject


For more information, contact Debora Wu, at DWU@LicataKelleher.com

April 25, 2007

WHO’S LIABLE FOR PET FOOD CONTAMINATION – THE RISK OF PRODUCT LIABILITY

China the source of the problem

Pet food contamination has been traced to Chinese suppliers. Wheat gluten purchased from company in Xuzhou, China, north of Shanghai, contained the hazardous material, and other Chinese companies are now implicated.

Food product sellers have a special product liability exposure which is highlighted by this incident. This applies to all players in the supply chain from farmers to manufacturers to retailers. Liability arising from death or injury can be substantial, and with products in general, and food products in particular, there is the likelihood that the defective product will affect large numbers of victims, resulting in multiple claims.

With respect to components (or ingredients) purchased from suppliers outside the US, there are the further problems of uncertainty re quality control, and possibly lack of recourse against the supplier. Some foreign suppliers may not have substantial assets or may not carry any or enough product liability insurance (this of course could also be the case with a US supplier). Furthermore, distance and difference in legal systems could prevent recovery. Plaintiffs who cannot reach the ultimate culprit will go after the US company. These same recovery problems would apply to your insurer as it tries to subrogate after paying your claims.

Risk Management

Consider the following in managing your product liability risk:

• Know the ultimate source of components you buy from K
Ksuppliers; consider your immediate supplier may not be
Kthe originator.

• Know the level of product quality, and government oversight
Kof same, of the source country.

• Obtain indemnification and insurance protection from suppliers
Kif you are simply a downstream distributor.

• Review your product liability limits for adequacy with an
Kunderstanding of how your limits apply: per claim or aggregate.
KIf your limits are on an “aggregate” basis, this is all the
Kprotection you will have for all claims in total.

• Make sure there is full disclosure to underwriters of the
Kexposure, and this could include disclosure of suppliers.

• Don’t necessarily rely on inspection or analysis provided by
Kthe foreign supplier; it may be necessary to have this verified
Kin the US.

For more information, contact Debora Wu, at DWU@LicataKelleher.com